The Santa rally in Bitcoin, year by year
Bitcoin rose in 5 of the last 9 Santa rally windows, about as often as in any random week. Each year's move, our method, and gold's one window.
Saurav Wagh · 4 min read
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Over the last nine Santa rally windows, Bitcoin closed higher five times and lower four times. The middle result was a gain of 1.2%, and one year, 2020, did most of the lifting. That is close to what Bitcoin did in any seven days you might pick at random, so the history gives a mild lean at best.
This page is history only, with no view on December 2026.
What the Santa rally window is
The Santa Claus rally comes from the Stock Trader's Almanac, where Yale Hirsch described it in 1972: the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. It is a stock market idea, so it counts stock trading days and skips weekends and Christmas.
Crypto trades every day, so we kept the count and dropped the gaps. For Bitcoin the window is the last five days of December and the first two of January: from the daily close on 26 December to the daily close on 2 January, in UTC. That is seven daily candles.
Bitcoin in each window, 2017 to 2025
Each row is one window, so the 2025 row runs into January 2026. The second column is a longer stretch people also call the Santa rally: the second half of December, from the close on 14 December to the close on 31 December.
| Window | 26 Dec to 2 Jan | 15 to 31 Dec |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | −6.5% | −16.0% |
| 2018 | +2.1% | +14.8% |
| 2019 | −3.3% | +1.9% |
| 2020 | +21.5% | +50.1% |
| 2021 | −6.9% | −4.4% |
| 2022 | −1.5% | −7.1% |
| 2023 | +5.6% | −1.7% |
| 2024 | +1.2% | −7.8% |
| 2025 | +3.0% | −0.6% |
How we measured it: for 2022 to 2025 we used Hyperliquid's daily candles for its BTC perpetual (candle API), read on 20 October 2026. For 2017 to 2021 we computed the moves ourselves from Binance's public BTCUSDT daily candles and show only the percentages. Where both sources cover the same window, 2022 to 2025, they agree to within 0.1 of a point.
Example: the 2025 window on Hyperliquid's daily candles. Close on 26 December 2025: 87,339. Close on 2 January 2026: 89,932. (89,932 − 87,339) ÷ 87,339 = 2,593 ÷ 87,339 = 0.0297, so the window gained 3.0%.
What the nine windows add up to
Five of nine closed higher. Sorted from worst to best, the middle one is 2024's gain of 1.2%. The average is higher, at 1.7%, because of one window: 2020 gained 21.5%. Take 2020 out and the other eight average a loss of 0.8%.
For a fair comparison we took every seven-day stretch on Bitcoin's daily chart from August 2017 to January 2026, more than 3,000 of them. 53% closed higher and the middle one gained 0.6%. The Santa window sits a little above that, by a margin nine years cannot separate from luck. A coin that lands heads 53 times in 100 would give five or more heads in nine throws about 57 times in 100.
The longer stretch tells a different story. From 15 to 31 December, Bitcoin closed higher in only three years of nine, and lower in each of the last four. Change the window and the "rally" changes with it, so ask any seasonal claim which days it counts.
Gold has one window so far
Our gold figures come from Hyperliquid's gold perpetual (xyz:GOLD), whose candles start on 22 December 2025. That covers one Santa window, the 2025 one.
Gold keeps stock-style trading days, so we used the Almanac's window as written: from the close on 23 December 2025 to the close on 5 January 2026, at 17:00 New York, where our gold candles close. Gold fell 4.5% on 29 December alone, was 3.8% below the start at the close on 31 December, and finished the window 0.9% lower. One window is a fact, and too little to call a habit.
Check every window on Pravex
Pravex is a free charting app. No paid plan, no card, no ads. We make it, and in our view it is the easiest free place to check a seasonal claim like this one yourself.
Open Bitcoin's chart, pick the daily timeframe and go back to any December. Put the crosshair on the 26 December candle and read its close in the Legend, then do the same on 2 January. With bar replay you can also step through a December one candle at a time without the ending in view. It works the same on the gold chart.
Pravex charts crypto, gold, silver, oil and US indices today, and more markets are being added. If you want the same test run on a whole month, our Uptober page does it for October.
Nine windows are too few to trade on by themselves. They are enough to stop anyone from calling the Santa rally a sure thing. Not financial advice.
Questions and answers
What is the Santa Claus rally?
The Stock Trader's Almanac's name, from 1972, for the last five trading days of December and the first two of January in US stocks. It describes the past only.
When is the Santa rally window in crypto?
Crypto trades every day, so we use the last five days of December and the first two of January: from the daily close on 26 December to the daily close on 2 January, in UTC.
Does Bitcoin have a Santa rally?
In the nine windows from 2017 to 2025, Bitcoin closed higher five times, with a middle result of 1.2%. Any seven days picked at random closed higher 53% of the time, so the difference is small.
Did gold rise in the 2025 Santa rally?
No. On Hyperliquid's gold perpetual, gold finished the window from 23 December 2025 to 5 January 2026 0.9% lower, after a 4.5% drop on 29 December. That is the only window its history covers.
Where can I check the Santa rally on a chart for free?
On Pravex, a free charting app with no card: open the Bitcoin chart on the daily timeframe and read the 26 December and 2 January closes in the Legend.
Not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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